Publications
Are Jobless Recoveries in the Rearview Mirror? Slow Recoveries and the Fed's Policy of Opportunistic Disinflation (forthcoming, Review of Keynesian Economics)
Eliminating Environmental Costs to Proof-of-Work-Based Cryptocurrencies: A Proposal (Eastern Economic Journal volume 49, pages 206–220 (2023) )
Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How Important were Loan Supply Shocks? (with Max Breitenlechner and Johann Scharler, Explorations in Economic History, Volume 79, January 2021, 101379.
Credit Supply Shocks and the Great Depression in Germany, (with M. Breitenlechner, D. Grundler, and J. Scharler, 2020, European Review of Economic History)
How Much Did Uncertainty Shocks Matter in the Great Depression? (Cliometrica 14, no. 2 (2020): 283-323.)
How did forecasters respond to the American growth slowdown of the mid-2000s to the present? (Applied Economics Letters 27, no. 8 (2020): 651-656.)
How was the Quantitative Easing Program of the 1930s Unwound? (with Matthew Jaremski) (Explorations in Economic History, Volume 69, July 2018, Pages 27-49)
Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press (with Herman Stekler, Volume 53, September 2017, Pages 1-15, Journal of Macroeconomics)
Was the Deflation of the Depression Anticipated? An Inference Using Real-time Data (with Herman Stekler, 2017, Journal of Economic Methodology) [data appendix]
Looking Back On the Age of Checking in America, 1800-1960 (with Matthew Jaremski, 2017, Revista de la Historia de la Economía y de la Empresa.)
Hysteresis and Persistent Long-term Unemployment: The American Beveridge Curve of the Great Depression and World War II (Cliometrica, January 2017, 1-26)
How Much Does Political Uncertainty Matter? The Case of Louisiana under Huey Long (with Nicholas L. Ziebarth, Journal of Economic History, February 2017)
Stock Volatility, Return Jumps and Uncertainty Shocks During the Great Depression Financial History Review 23.02 (2016): 165-192.
Business cycle co-movement: Evidence from the Great Depression Journal of Monetary Economics, May 2011, 58(4), 362-372 (with Christopher M. Meissner).
Other Publications
Can Uncertainty Shocks Help Explain the U.S. Great Depression? A Historical Decomposition Approach (Revue d'économie financière, July 2021)
Eliminating Environmental Costs to Proof-of-Work-Based Cryptocurrencies: A Proposal (Eastern Economic Journal volume 49, pages 206–220 (2023) )
Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How Important were Loan Supply Shocks? (with Max Breitenlechner and Johann Scharler, Explorations in Economic History, Volume 79, January 2021, 101379.
Credit Supply Shocks and the Great Depression in Germany, (with M. Breitenlechner, D. Grundler, and J. Scharler, 2020, European Review of Economic History)
How Much Did Uncertainty Shocks Matter in the Great Depression? (Cliometrica 14, no. 2 (2020): 283-323.)
How did forecasters respond to the American growth slowdown of the mid-2000s to the present? (Applied Economics Letters 27, no. 8 (2020): 651-656.)
How was the Quantitative Easing Program of the 1930s Unwound? (with Matthew Jaremski) (Explorations in Economic History, Volume 69, July 2018, Pages 27-49)
Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press (with Herman Stekler, Volume 53, September 2017, Pages 1-15, Journal of Macroeconomics)
Was the Deflation of the Depression Anticipated? An Inference Using Real-time Data (with Herman Stekler, 2017, Journal of Economic Methodology) [data appendix]
Looking Back On the Age of Checking in America, 1800-1960 (with Matthew Jaremski, 2017, Revista de la Historia de la Economía y de la Empresa.)
Hysteresis and Persistent Long-term Unemployment: The American Beveridge Curve of the Great Depression and World War II (Cliometrica, January 2017, 1-26)
How Much Does Political Uncertainty Matter? The Case of Louisiana under Huey Long (with Nicholas L. Ziebarth, Journal of Economic History, February 2017)
Stock Volatility, Return Jumps and Uncertainty Shocks During the Great Depression Financial History Review 23.02 (2016): 165-192.
Business cycle co-movement: Evidence from the Great Depression Journal of Monetary Economics, May 2011, 58(4), 362-372 (with Christopher M. Meissner).
Other Publications
Can Uncertainty Shocks Help Explain the U.S. Great Depression? A Historical Decomposition Approach (Revue d'économie financière, July 2021)
Working Papers
Fiscal Multipliers in Huey Long's Louisiana (with Vasudeva Ramaswamy )
The World's First Global Safe Asset: British Public Debt, 1718-1913 (with Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, submitted)
Could Diffusion Indexes Have Forecasted the Great Depression? (with Yongchen Zhao, submitted)
How much would Huey Long's Share Our Wealth Plan have lowered inequality? (submitted)
Was Huey Long's Political Career Doomed? (submitted)
Crowding Out: A Critique (submitted)
Monetary Famine, Paper Money, and International Constraints on Economic Growth: The Case of Colonial Quebec (with Vincent Geloso, submitted)
Did Henry Ford Cause the Recession of 1926-1927? A Test of the Granular Hypothesis (with Stephen Sun, submitted)
Funding the Green New Deal and Stabilizing an Unstable Economy: Functional Finance Nominal Income Targeting (submitted)
The World's First Hyperdeflation: the Case of Bitcoin
Forecasting the 1937-1938 Recession: Quantifying Contemporary Newspaper Forecasts (with Christian Roatta, submitted)
Mismeasurement of Productivity by the Solow Residual: Evidence from Manufacturing Labor Productivity (submitted)
Anti-Scroogenomics: A Keynesian Celebration of Christmas (for fun)
Resting Papers
Bad Luck or Bad Workers? A View of the Long-term Unemployed in the Great Depression through Matched Census Records (with Paul Gaggl)
The World's First Global Safe Asset: British Public Debt, 1718-1913 (with Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, submitted)
Could Diffusion Indexes Have Forecasted the Great Depression? (with Yongchen Zhao, submitted)
How much would Huey Long's Share Our Wealth Plan have lowered inequality? (submitted)
Was Huey Long's Political Career Doomed? (submitted)
Crowding Out: A Critique (submitted)
Monetary Famine, Paper Money, and International Constraints on Economic Growth: The Case of Colonial Quebec (with Vincent Geloso, submitted)
Did Henry Ford Cause the Recession of 1926-1927? A Test of the Granular Hypothesis (with Stephen Sun, submitted)
Funding the Green New Deal and Stabilizing an Unstable Economy: Functional Finance Nominal Income Targeting (submitted)
The World's First Hyperdeflation: the Case of Bitcoin
Forecasting the 1937-1938 Recession: Quantifying Contemporary Newspaper Forecasts (with Christian Roatta, submitted)
Mismeasurement of Productivity by the Solow Residual: Evidence from Manufacturing Labor Productivity (submitted)
Anti-Scroogenomics: A Keynesian Celebration of Christmas (for fun)
Resting Papers
Bad Luck or Bad Workers? A View of the Long-term Unemployed in the Great Depression through Matched Census Records (with Paul Gaggl)
Works in Progress
The Canadian Beveridge Curve in the Great Depression (with Vincent Geloso)
A Monthly Unemployment Rate Series for American States: 1930-1975 (with Zander Memon)
Evolving Sources of Fluctuations in the 19th Century American Economy (with William D. Craighead and Pao-Lin Tien)
Private Sector Estimates of Unemployment and the Development of Official Labor Force Data
Worker Cooperatives and Business Cycle Stabilization
Why Cooperatives Would Invest More and Why That Matters
A Model of Currency Crises for Inflation Targeters with Flexible Exchange Rates (with Nana Boakye Yiadom)
Alvin Hansen was Right: Secular Stagnation in the American Economy of 1939
A Monthly Unemployment Rate Series for American States: 1930-1975 (with Zander Memon)
Evolving Sources of Fluctuations in the 19th Century American Economy (with William D. Craighead and Pao-Lin Tien)
Private Sector Estimates of Unemployment and the Development of Official Labor Force Data
Worker Cooperatives and Business Cycle Stabilization
Why Cooperatives Would Invest More and Why That Matters
A Model of Currency Crises for Inflation Targeters with Flexible Exchange Rates (with Nana Boakye Yiadom)
Alvin Hansen was Right: Secular Stagnation in the American Economy of 1939
Links
Interwar Labor Market Dataset, generously funded by the Institute of New Economic Thinking
Research Listing @ IDEAS
Research Listing @ IDEAS